Axiscades Mistral Technologies
A Deep Dive into the Defence Contender's Potential and Pitfalls
More Than Just an Engineering Firm
Axiscades operates in six main areas: Aerospace, Defence, Automotive, Energy, Product Engineering (think semiconductors), and Heavy Engineering.
That's a pretty diverse portfolio! But what really caught my eye are a few key things that make them stand out:
Debt Reduction: Axiscades had taken on a hefty, high-cost debt to acquire a company called Mistral. But they recently raised about 220 crores through a QIP (basically, selling a chunk of the company to investors) in January 2024. This is fantastic news because they're using that money to pay off that expensive debt. This means their interest costs will drop significantly, from 56 crores in FY24 to around 30 crores in FY25. Lower interest payments mean a healthier bottom line – more profit!
Mistral's Defence Business: Mistral, now a part of Axiscades, has two sides to its defence business: prototyping and production. Prototyping is kind of like the research and development phase – it's where they design and test new defence products. This part isn't very profitable, with margins sometimes even dipping into the negative. But the real money-maker is defence production. This is where they actually manufacture the products they've designed, and the margins here are juicy – between 25-40%! In FY24, Mistral's defence production brought in 112 crores in revenue. Axiscades expects this to grow to 170 crores in FY25 and a whopping 225-250 crores in FY26. That's some serious growth!
Tejas and Sukhoi: Axiscades has its sights set on two big projects: the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) and the Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets. They can supply products worth around 8 crores for each of these projects. The commercial production of Tejas (about 16-24 planes per year) and upgrades for the Su-30 (around 50 per year) are expected to really ramp up from FY27 onwards. I'm projecting that once these projects hit full steam, Axiscades' defence production revenue could soar past 500 crores!
Heavy Engineering: Heavy Engineering is Axiscades' oldest business, with Caterpillar as a major client. It's essentially a staffing business, and it wasn't very profitable, with negative EBITDA margins (-3%). But things are looking up! The company is aiming for mid-single-digit EBITDA margins in FY25 and could even reach low double digits in FY26. That's a significant turnaround!
Aerospace: Aerospace is a major part of Axiscades' business, and it's growing rapidly. Their biggest client here is Airbus, for which they have a dedicated Offshore Development Center (ODC). Airbus is planning to drastically increase its production, aiming for 700 planes in the next 1-2 years and a long-term goal of 1000 planes per year. They have a massive order book of 3000 planes to deliver. On top of that, the problems faced by Boeing's 737 Max are indirectly benefiting Airbus, helping it grow even faster. This bodes well for Axiscades!
The Mistral Acquisition Saga
Now, let's rewind a bit and talk about how Axiscades acquired Mistral. It's a bit of a saga, but it's crucial to understanding where they are today.
The owners of Axiscades had a vision: they saw the Indian defence sector was about to boom and wanted a piece of the action. They set their sights on Mistral Solutions Limited, a company with over two decades of experience in the defence space.
At the time, Axiscades was a relatively small company, with a market capitalization of around 500 crores, revenue of 500 crores, and normalized EBITDA (a measure of profitability) of 30-40 crores. The Mistral acquisition was going to cost them 200-300 crores, and their balance sheet wasn't exactly strong enough to handle it. So, they devised a plan to acquire Mistral in four phases over time, using a mix of debt and equity swaps (trading shares for ownership).
Then, something unexpected happened. Data Pattern, another defence company, went public with a massive market capitalization of 4500 crores, trading at a very high price-to-earnings ratio of 70-80. This raised concerns about Mistral's valuation, and disputes broke out between Axiscades and Mistral's original owners.
The whole thing ended up in court (NCLT), dragging on for 2-3 years. Finally, Axiscades won the right to buy Mistral, but they had to pay a lump sum for the last two phases, plus 12% interest. This forced them to take on a large amount of high-cost debt in a short period.
Fast forward to today, and the Mistral acquisition is finally complete. It's now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Axiscades. That 220 crores they raised in January 2024? That's being used to pay off that expensive debt. By the end of Q1 FY25, their net debt should be down to a manageable 50 crores.
they bough Mistral at the right valuation, if they not lost in court then think about what would have happened?
Diving Deeper into Mistral Defence
Before we get into the nitty-gritty of Mistral's defence business, let's understand a couple of key concepts. Defence projects typically have two phases:
Prototyping: This is the long, drawn-out process of designing, developing, and testing new defence products. It can take anywhere from 4 to 7 years, sometimes even longer! It's a competitive space because if you're not involved in prototyping, you're unlikely to win production orders. The profitability of prototyping varies widely, ranging from negative EBITDA margins to 10-15%, depending on the project.
Production: Once a prototype is approved, it moves into production. This is where the magic happens. The vendor who developed the prototype is usually locked in, and they'll continue to receive orders for the next 15-30 years! Production is a highly profitable business, with EBITDA margins typically in the 25-40% range.
What I find truly exciting is investing in a defence business at the inflection point – that moment when the production side of the business starts to take off and become a major revenue driver. This is what happened to Data Patterns starting in FY20. Their margins jumped to 28% in FY20, 41% in FY21, and kept climbing! Before that, their margins were stuck in the 16-18% range.
And guess what? Mistral Defence is at that exact inflection point right now!
To really grasp the potential of Mistral, I highly recommend checking out two presentations: one from November 2018 and another from November 2017. These presentations are goldmines of information and will give you a much deeper understanding of Mistral's capabilities and future prospects. I'm genuinely curious to see how this plays out, and I believe Axiscades is a company to watch closely!
Some of the slides from the presentation are captured here:
Mistral works in 3 segments - Defence, Homeland Security and Product Engineering
In Defence, company works in radars, sonars, telemetry, electronic warfare (EW) systems, airborne & naval systems.
Above diagram shows some of the products of Mistral, I will list some of them -
Medium Powered Radar (Arudhra):
₹90 crore contract for 8 radars recently won by Mistral.
Low-Level Tracking Radar (Ashwini LLTR):
Active tender with BEL, Data Patterns, Astra Micro, and Mistral competing.
Estimated opportunity: ₹50–60 crore.
AEWAC Radar Processing Unit (Netra):
Supplied to Adani Defence for Netra 2 project (Adani is L1).
Ship Sonar Processing Units:
Front-end units for sonar systems on ongoing and new ship projects.
Multi-Function Radar:
BEL’s ₹850 crore order with Cochin Shipyard involves Mistral’s components (value yet to be determined).
Above image highlights products used in Electronic Warfare (EW) systems. Mistral has strong expertise in Direction Finding (DF) systems, a critical component of EW. Other key products include Identification of Friend or Foe (IFF) and Telemetry systems, all essential for modern defense applications.
Mistral is actively involved in developing various radar sub-components, including Transmitter Receiver (TR) Modules and GaN-based TR modules, commonly used in AESA Uttam Radar. The company also supplies Secondary Board Computers (SBCs) for different aircraft, showcasing its diverse capabilities.
These highlights represent just a fraction of Mistral’s wide-ranging product portfolio. With 40+ design wins across these programs, the company is poised for significant growth, with an estimated revenue potential of ₹4,000–5,000 crore over the next decade.
Okay, let's break down Axiscades' various business segments from an investor's perspective, because who doesn't love a good investment story?
1. Mistral Defence: The Crown Jewel
This is where the real excitement lies, and it's what makes Axiscades particularly interesting to me as an investor. Let's look at the juicy parts of their 4000 crore order book:
LCA Tejas (1200 crore opportunity): Axiscades makes parts (like single-board computers and video/graphics components) for the Tejas, a homegrown fighter jet. They'll also supply parts for the Uttam Radar that will eventually go into these jets. The Indian Air Force wants about 200 Tejas over the next 8 years. Axiscades could make 8-9 crores per plane, totaling a potential 1200 crores! Right now, HAL (the manufacturer) can make 16 Tejas per year, and they're aiming for 24. There have been delays due to engine supply issues from GE, but there's news that these issues might be resolved by November 2024. Key takeaway: This is a huge opportunity, but it will really start to shine from FY27 onwards.
Su-30 Upgrades (2000 crore opportunity): India wants to upgrade around 230-250 Sukhoi jets with new radars, avionics, and more. Axiscades is involved in multiple parts of this upgrade, and they could make around 8 crores per plane. This project is still in the development phase, and we can expect it to start generating serious revenue around H2 FY27 or FY28. Key takeaway: Another massive, long-term opportunity that will contribute significantly in the coming years.
Airborne Electronic Warfare & Combat Systems (AEW&CS) (around 300 crore opportunity): They're supplying Netra 1 EW systems, and there's potential with Netra 2 and the Samudrika naval EW program (which includes several ship-borne and air-borne systems). It's a bit tricky to pinpoint the exact numbers and timelines here, but a 300 crore opportunity seems like a fair estimate.
Ashwini Radar (50-60 crore opportunity): Axiscades is actively bidding for this project.
Other Programs (1500-2000 crore opportunity): This is a bit of a mixed bag, including naval radars/sonars, the Rustom UAV program, Dornier-228 upgrades, radar systems, and other naval programs. It's hard to get specifics, but collectively, these could be worth 1500-2000 crores over several years.
The Big Picture for Mistral Defence:
The management has guided for defence production revenue of 170 crores in FY25 and 225-250 crores in FY26. But here's the kicker: when both the Tejas and Sukhoi programs are in full swing (think 24 Tejas per year and 50 Su-30 upgrades per year), these two programs alone represent a potential 600 crore revenue opportunity! Key takeaway: FY27/FY28 could be game-changing years for Mistral, with a massive jump in revenue. This is what makes it such an exciting prospect for investors.
2. Aerospace: Steady Growth with Airbus
Axiscades did 280 crores in revenue in FY24 and 80 crores in Q1 FY25 from this segment.
Airbus is their biggest client, and with Boeing facing troubles, Airbus's order book is overflowing. They're aiming to produce 700 planes this year and eventually ramp up to 1000 per year to meet their massive order book of 3000 planes.
Axiscades works in four key areas for Airbus: product design, concession management (linked to aircraft volume), repair work (also linked to volume), and manufacturing engineering (designing new plants, etc.).
They recently renewed a 75 million dollar contract with Airbus for 3 years and won another 18 million dollar contract with an Aerospace OEM.
In their AGM, they mentioned they're looking to expand beyond OEMs to work with MROs (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul), engine manufacturers, avionics, and landing gear manufacturers.
Key takeaway: This is a solid, growing business. Expect 15-20% growth for the next few years at least. One potential risk is the issue with Pratt & Whitney engines that Airbus is facing.
3. Heavy Engineering: On the Road to Recovery
This is Axiscades' oldest business, with Caterpillar as the main client.
It was a low-margin, staffing-focused business that actually had negative EBITDA margins in FY24 (on 152 crores in revenue).
They had a small positive EBITDA margin in Q1 FY25 and are aiming for 5-6% margins in FY25.
Key takeaway: They're turning things around. I expect them to reach double-digit EBITDA margins in FY26 with 10-15% growth. Not a huge money-spinner, but it's moving in the right direction.
4. Product Engineering (Semiconductor Consulting): A Mix of High and Low Margins
This segment has two parts: consulting and production.
They did 125 crores in revenue in FY24 (67 crores consulting, 58 crores production).
In consulting, they help develop firmware and applications for their customers' hardware. Texas Instruments (TI) is a major client, and the end products are mainly for the automotive industry.
They also work with Qualcomm and Nvidia.
The production part involves manufacturing development boards, but it's been facing inventory issues and degrowth. They expect improvement from H2 FY25.
Semiconductor consulting is a high-margin business (30%+), while production is lower (10-15%).
The overall segment reported 22% margins in FY24.
Key takeaway: Expect around 10-15% growth. The high-margin consulting business is the interesting part here.
5. Automotive: Facing Headwinds but with Long-Term Potential
This is a relatively new segment for Axiscades.
They acquired a German company called add solution, Gmbh, with Volkswagen as its largest client. They work on HMI testing and wiring harnesses.
This business did 103 crores in revenue in FY24 with 10-11% margins.
The automotive ER&D sector is huge, but this business is facing challenges due to the influx of Chinese EVs into Europe. Volkswagen is even closing some plants.
They've also acquired JLR as a client.
Key takeaway: Expect this business to be flat in FY25, with modest growth maybe in FY26. It's a long-term play, but there are short-term challenges.
6. Energy: The New Kid on the Block
This is another new segment, and they recently acquired a Hyderabad-based company called Epcogen, which focuses on oil & gas and renewables.
One of their clients, Highview Power, secured a 300 million pound grant for a liquid air energy storage plant in the UK. Consulting costs for such projects are typically 1-2% of the total cost.
They're hiring 50 engineers in Hyderabad and opening an office in Dubai to target major oil & gas players.
This business did 33 crores in revenue in FY24.
Key takeaway: This is a high-growth, high-margin (20%) business. It's early days, but it could be a significant contributor in the future.
Okay, let's explore some of the intriguing "X-factors" and potential risks surrounding Axiscades. Think of these as the wildcards – they could either be huge wins or potential stumbling blocks
The X-Factors: Potential Game-Changers
Beyond the core businesses we've already discussed, Axiscades has a few irons in the fire that could turn into major opportunities. Let's take a curious look:
Counter-Drone Systems: A Growing Market: Axiscades Aerospace Technologies Limited (ACAT), a subsidiary, landed an order for about 100 counter-drone systems, with deliveries happening throughout FY25. Some of these systems are already deployed in Manipur. The company believes this market could be worth a whopping 3000 crores! They've mentioned in their AGM that they're in talks for two more follow-on orders. It's a competitive space, with players like Zen Technologies and Adani Defence also vying for a piece of the pie. Key takeaway: This is a fascinating area to watch. Will Axiscades be able to carve out a significant share in this growing market? It will be interesting to track their progress.
Homeland Security: A New Frontier: Mistral has been investing heavily in developing products for homeland security. They recently delivered a Mobile Command & Control Vehicle to the Gujarat government. Could this evolve into a 100 crore segment for them? It's something to keep an eye on. Key takeaway: This is a new area of focus, and it will be interesting to see if it gains traction and becomes a significant revenue stream.
Defence Drones: Replacing Mules in the Mountains: Mistral is also developing drones for defence applications. They have models like XHERPA, FALCON RAAD, HOUND, and STEALTH. Currently, the Army spends around 600 crores annually to maintain mules that carry supplies to remote outposts in mountainous regions. The idea is to replace these mules with drones. Mistral participated in recent drone trials in Ladakh.
Key takeaway: Will they secure some commercial orders in this space? It's an intriguing concept with the potential to revolutionize logistics for the Army. It is an opportunity worth exploring and I'm curious to see how it develops.
mmWave Radars: Beyond Defence: Axiscades has expertise in mmWave radars, which operate at high frequencies and offer better accuracy over short ranges. These radars have applications not only in defence but also in Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS) for vehicles. The company mentioned in their AGM that they're talking to some ADAS players. Key takeaway: This is a potential area of diversification, and their technical skills in mmWave radars could give them an edge. Will they be able to leverage this expertise to gain new customers in the automotive sector?
Potential Risks: Navigating the Challenges
Investing always comes with risks, and Axiscades is no exception. Here are some potential challenges to consider:
The B2G (Business-to-Government) Risk: A large chunk of Mistral's growth depends on contracts with government entities like the Ministry of Defence, Indian Navy, HAL, BEL, and Cochin Shipyard. This sector is notorious for delays, and timelines often get pushed back. For example, the delivery of GE engines for the Tejas has been significantly delayed. Key takeaway: Delays are almost inevitable in this space, and investors need to be prepared for potential setbacks.
Key Man Risk: Axiscades had a period of instability in its top management until the current MD, Arun Krishnamurthy (now he exited the company), and CFO, Shashidhar, came on board. They've stabilized the company and set it on a growth path. Muju, the CEO of Mistral, and his senior team have deep connections within the Indian defence industry. If either Arun or Muju were to leave, it could be a major setback. Fortunately, Arun and Shashidhar have stock options that amount to 5-6% of the company's total equity, which should incentivize them to stay committed. Key takeaway: Leadership is crucial, and any unexpected departures could negatively impact the company.
The Multi-Segment Tightrope: Axiscades operates in six different segments. This diversification can be a strength, but it also means that at any given time, one or two segments might underperform, dragging down the overall results. For example, the automotive segment is currently facing challenges. Similarly, if the Pratt & Whitney engine issue worsens, it could slow down growth in the aerospace segment. Key takeaway: Investors need to be aware that the performance of individual segments can fluctuate and impact the overall picture.
Small Product Size, Many Programs: Some people are concerned that the revenue contribution from each individual program is relatively small. This means that Axiscades needs several programs to succeed simultaneously for significant growth, which can be harder to achieve than relying on one or two large programs. Key takeaway: This is a valid concern. However, this is more of an industry-wide characteristic rather than a Mistral-specific issue. Many defence contracts are divided among multiple vendors. While larger companies like Astra Microwave and Data Patterns might get bigger pieces of the pie, Mistral still has a place in the value chain. They will probably get 15-20% share in most radar orders, in my opinion.
Late to the Defence Party? The defence sector has already seen a massive rally, with many stocks delivering huge returns over the past 4-5 years. Many defence stocks are now down 30-40% from their recent peaks. This means that the re-rating journey for Axiscades might be a long and frustrating one.
Key takeaway: This is more of an investor-specific concern rather than an operational one. The defence sector might not see the same explosive growth as it did in the past. However, with the current government's focus on defence production and indigenization, one can expect continued growth in the sector, albeit perhaps at a more moderate pace. The defence production outlay was around 1.7 lakh crores in the FY25 budget, with about 1.05 lakh crores for indigenous production. These numbers will likely grow at a CAGR of 8-10% by 2029. So, the business should continue to grow operationally. Whether the current valuations make sense is a decision each investor needs to make based on their own assessment and risk appetite.
Axiscades is a complex but intriguing company with a lot of moving parts. They have some exciting "X-factors" that could lead to significant growth, but they also face some real risks. As an investor, I'm particularly curious about the Mistral Defence story and the potential for a major inflection point in the coming years. The other segments provide a mix of stability and growth potential.
Snippet:
they are doing something in healthcore too if yu read their recent concall transcript
Mistral’s drone High Altitude testing video.
Anti- Drone System
Mistral Drone trial
Recent AGM Notes:
The Big Picture:
Aerospace and Defence are the main growth drivers for the company, so they're even rebranding to "Axiscades Mistral" to reflect this focus.
They've previously projected reaching 1600 crores in revenue and 160 crores in PAT (profit after tax), but that includes potential acquisitions and assumes no major global economic problems.
Division Breakdown:
Automotive: Currently facing tough times. The German auto market is struggling due to issues like gas supply problems and competition from Chinese electric vehicles. Volkswagen, a key client, has shut down two plants in Germany. However, they believe the long-term outlook (2-5 years) for the automotive ER&D sector is still strong.
Aerospace: There are short-term challenges like component shortages and issues with Pratt & Whitney engines. But the medium-term outlook is good. Airbus, a major customer, has a huge backlog of 3000 planes to deliver by 2030. They're planning to increase production from 775 to 1000 planes per year. Axiscades is looking to expand beyond just working with OEMs (like Airbus) and tap into areas like avionics and MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul).
Energy: Seeing good growth, especially in oil & gas and renewables. The Middle East is a focus area.
Product Engineering (PES): They're working on mm-wave radar modules, which are used in autonomous driving, and they want to expand this from PES into their automotive segment.
Heavy Engineering: This is their old, legacy business (35 years). They've had problems with low profitability, but they're trying to improve margins by cross-selling their embedded systems expertise to these clients.
Defence: This is where they see the biggest opportunity for growth. They believe the defence sector is at an "inflection point" due to increased defence spending, the shift towards electronic warfare (where Mistral has strengths), and the "Make in India" initiative. They're focused on increasing their defence production revenue. They did about 30 crores in FY23, 100 crores in FY24, and are aiming for 165-170 crores in FY25 and 225-250 crores in FY26.
Specific Defence Projects:
Counter-Drone Systems: They have a 100 crore order for man-portable counter-drone systems and are expecting two more large orders from the Army soon. They see this as a 3000 crore opportunity, including exports.
Military Drones: They're very interested in drones for military use, especially for carrying heavy payloads at high altitudes. They've participated in trials in Ladakh and are hopeful for orders. The government currently spends 600 crores a year on traditional logistics (like mules) in these areas.
Tejas, Sukhoi, and Other Programs: They're involved in several major defence programs, including the Tejas fighter jet, Sukhoi upgrades, and various radar systems.
Homeland Security: They've developed emergency vehicles and are seeing potential demand from police, airports, and border security forces. They've delivered to the Gujarat government and Bangalore airport.
Order Book:
As of FY24, the company has an order book of Rs. 749 Cr. The defense vertical comprises Rs. 272 Cr of its executable order book. But 5000 cr of order book will be the projection of mine if yu calculate everything if things go as per planned…
Their recent Restructuring Plan, now yu will understand what that means in 2025 their MD is resign
Very interesting call. Worth listening to, for anyone interested in the company.
Key takeways:
Major restructuring including bringing back Mr Sampath Ravinarayan as Chief mentor and a whole lot of other changes.
Clear focus on a) Defence and b) Semiconductors, Healthcare
RISK:
Essentially, there's a worry that Axiscades is trying to do too much, too soon. They're talking about big plans like acquiring or building a defence manufacturing company, expanding in the US, and growing their anti-drone and chip businesses. This requires significant investment, and it's unclear if their current financial position can support all of this. They might need to raise more money through another QIP, but there's a limit to how much a company of their size can raise this way.
There's also uncertainty surrounding key personnel. The recent management restructuring and the resignation of CEO Arun Krishnamurthy raise questions. It's unclear what the role of Mr. Muju, the CEO of Mistral, will be going forward, and there are concerns about potential sidelining of key figures like Mr. Muju and Mr. Shashidhar (the CFO, who is still with the company). This leadership transition feels sudden and raises concerns about the company's future direction. The constant mention of AI in their communications also raises a flag for some.
The company has set ambitious targets, particularly in the defence sector, aiming to grow it from 30% to 60% of their business in the next 12-18 months. It remains to be seen if they can deliver on this. Given that a lot of their defence business comes from government contracts, there's the inherent risk of delays, which is common in this sector. The increasing receivables are also something to keep an eye on.
Furthermore, while having multiple business segments can be good for diversification, it also means that if one or two segments underperform, it can drag down the whole company. The automotive segment is facing challenges right now, and any issues with Pratt & Whitney engines could impact their aerospace business. The small size of individual defence contracts also means they need many projects to succeed to achieve significant growth.
Other concerns include customer concentration risk, decreasing promoter holdings, pledged shares (although this has improved), geopolitical risks, currency fluctuations, contingent liabilities, and high management salaries. The involvement of a PE firm with political connections adds another layer of complexity, with potential selling overhang and key man risk. The recent resignation of the CEO, who was instrumental in turning the company around, adds to the uncertainty. It feels like the team that brought stability after the Mistral acquisition is being pushed out, and the new management's vision is still unclear, making some investors cautious. In essence, the rapid changes and ambitious plans, coupled with leadership changes, create a sense of unease about Axiscades' future, despite the potential in the defence sector.
PERSONAL NOTE:
So, I'm Invested in Axiscades, and yeah, I'm totally biased, but hear me out. They've got some good stuff going on, even though that restructuring thing they do every couple of years bugs me. They got this subsidiary, Epcogen, that snagged a monster deal to build the world's biggest liquid air energy storage plant in the UK. That's a big deal and shows they can play with the big boys in the energy game, plus it's cool they're into the whole green energy scene.
Then, out of nowhere, their CEO, Arun Krishnamurthi, just bounces in January 2025. That's definitely not good. Makes you wonder what's really happening there. A company needs a good leader, and now who knows? Plus, we don't even know why he left, which makes it even more iffy.
But then you got Rajnath Singh, the defense minister, saying 2025 is the year of defense, and the Indian government is pouring cash into it. They're also pushing hard on aerospace, and Axiscades is right in the middle of all that. It's like they're in the hottest sector at the perfect time.
And their anti-drone system? That's what I'm really excited about. They're using it in Manipur and Jammu & Kashmir right now. It's not a huge money maker for them yet, but think long term. If they can start exporting that stuff, especially to other countries needing defense tech, that's where the real money is.
Look, Axiscades has its issues, no doubt. The CEO leaving is a big one, and that restructuring thing is annoying. But with that huge energy contract, the government's focus on defense, and that awesome anti-drone system, there's a lot to like. I'm betting on them, but it's definitely not a sure thing. We'll see if my bet pays off.
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